5 Future
Technologies That Will Be Mainstream by 2020
Predicting
the future is a pastime as old as human thought, and over the millennia we've
had plenty of practice. Still, there are certain types of prognostication we're
more comfortable with than others. Predicting future tech is one of those.
Science
fiction gives us a glimpse at some possible futures, but the most reliable way
to know what's coming is to look at what's happening right now. Sales figures,
development trends, and customer feedback provide the most holistic view of
where we're going.
With
that in mind, here's a look at five nascent technologies that will be
everywhere you look by 2020.
We're not just
talking about TVs: Broadcasting, streaming media, and cinema will all adhere to
4K (UHD) standards by 2020. Or at least that's what a recent
survey of media executives by satellite operator Intelsat predicted.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents claimed 4K will be mainstream in five years.
Right
now, it's tough to find native 4K content to view on a 4K display. That's
because manufacturers and content providers—ever wary of piracy—are busily preparing
standards for hardware-based content protection. This translates to
high costs and lots of upgrades, at least up front, but as adoption becomes
widespread prices will start to drop.
UHD
will first become common on OTT (over-the-top) services like Netflix, Hulu, and
HBO Go, supported by hardware manufacturers such as Apple, Roku, and Samsung.
Eventually, the high-res video will find its way to direct-to-home (DTH)
services like cable and IPTV (which are currently trudging along with 720p and
1080i).
Virtual
Reality is probably the most enduring dream of technologists and futurists,
dating all the way back to the 1980s (or earlier, depending on your
definition). But now it’s finally starting to take shape.
The
biggest name in VR is Oculus, which plans
to launch its iconic, long-gestating Rift headset sometime next year.
But there are plenty of others taking cracks at the concept, from startups like Avegant to
huge corporations like Sony.
Virtual Reality is probably the most enduring
dream of techno-futurists.
The
biggest stumbling block for mainstream adoption of the tech is the speed with
which devices need to render images to keep up with the wearer's movements. But
developers are quickly working
on ways to trick the human eye into perceiving full-resolution,
low-latency video feeds.
VR
isn't just about gaming, either. Medical professionals can use these devises
for education or surgery prep. Architects can use them to render projects in
immersive 3D. And business meetings or educational lectures can take on a new
level of “remote presence
It
may sound like a stretch, but it’s not. One California startup called Ostendo
is working
on a chipset that can project video on a 48-inch diagonal surface.
Patched together, the projectors could form more complex images. Projection keyboards are
already a thing.
HP
is currently working on its own 3D imaging interface for smartphones, and there
arerumors that
the next iPhone will feature a holographic interface—if not in 3D then in the
form of a 2D keyboard.
A
Chinese phone manufacturer called Takee has already launched a
smartphone that renders a 3D display by reading the eye movements of
the user. It can even respond to finger movements, allowing for no-touch
control. Just imagine how far this tech can advance in the next five years
The differences between phones, tablets, and
laptops are already blurring. Need proof? Just look at the Microsoft
Surface Pro, Lenonvo
Yoga, and Asus
Transformer series—or the ever-growing dimensions of the most popular
smartphones. There are tablet-sized phones and phone-sized tablets, laptops
with mobile designs and mobile designs with laptop functions.
Since
all mobile devices are on the way to becoming one ur-device, it makes sense
that Microsoft is unifying its
next OS (Windows 10) across all devices—including Windows, Windows Phone, and Xbox.
computational ecosystem.
Apple
has been more reluctant to
merge its desktop OS (OS X) with the mobile iOS platform. But that hasn’t
stopped the company from converging features and facilitating cross-platform
development. Its new "Continuity" feature in OS X 10.10 Yosemite, for
instance, lets Mac users with iPhones and iPads view and respond to mobile
notifications from the desktop.
Android offers similarly
simple mobile-to-desktop transitions, but only if you're a Chrome OS user. For
those who want similar behavior between an Android phone and an OS X or Windows
desktop, Pushbullet is a
good substitute until Google gets its act together.
All
of this adds up to the fact that the personal computer of 2020 won't be defined
by its size, its OS, or its internet connection type. Instead, the mobile
devices of the future will serve as extensible "brains" of a larger
computational ecosystem in which your phone, laptop, and tablet are equal parts
If you’re going to declare the internet a
fundamental human right (as many countries arestarting to do),
then you need to broaden and diversify the ways people can access it. Currently
there are just two methods (broadband and wireless), both of which limit access
to rural, remote, or impoverished areas because of their intensive
infrastructural demands.
So
why not just beam internet access to Earth's remotest areas?
Google
is planning to launch a fleet of satellites that will orbit the globe and beam
internet to developing countries.
Sounds
like the stuff of science fiction, but it’s not. Google believes it can deliver
3G-speed wireless internet to the remotest regions on the planet with its Project Loon. How? By launching
high-altitude balloons 20 miles into the atmosphere and establishing aerial
wireless networks. The company is also planning to launch a fleet
of 180 satellites that will orbit the globe and broadcast internet to
developing countries. Elon Musk's SpaceX is working on a similar
plan.
Even
more outlandish (and perhaps a bit more than five years away) is Facebook's
plan to deploy solar-powered drones that will fly uninterrupted around
the globe for months or even years, showering the earth with internet access
Consumer 3D Printing: 3D printing is
awesome, and it’s already disrupting some markets. But the vision of 3D
printing that involves average Joes making everything from coffee mugs to
engine parts in their own home just isn't happening within the next five
years—maybe 10. The tech is simply too complex, and the demand too niche.
Self-Driving
Cars: Tesla's
new autopilot function is brilliant, and we hope
it works as advertised, but there's no way it's going to be mainstream by 2020.
We're willing to believe, however, that self-driving vehicles will be at
least as common as motorcycles by 2025. Just imagine Uber deploying its own fleet of
autonomous vehicles. Game over.
Wearable Everything: You might
love your Fitbit or Pebble Steel. You might even own a pair of Google Glass.
But wearables have a long
way to go before they become a mainstream phenomenon. Unlike other
categories, which face huge technological hurdles, wearable tech faces a cultural barrier:
A smartwatch or self-driving car is one thing, but a computer you wear on your
face is something else entirely.
A
Better Battery: Lithium-ion
has served us well, but we’re scraping
the bottom of the barrel in terms of efficiency. We need a new battery
or power cell to power more than just cameras and phones. Beyond the obvious
demands created by resource scarcity, rising populations, and the growing
popularity of electric vehicles, the expansion of the Internet
of Things is going to create a massive need for energy-dense power
hubs. Luckily, researchers already have some smart ideas.
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